I like the Wildcats here getting +105, if you wait you can probably get -2.5 on Friday or Saturday. I think this is a flat spot for Oklahoma State following their victory over a top 10 West Virginia team last week. Now they go on the road to face a Bill Snyder squad who I have favored by 6 in this game. That does not take into consideration that Kansas State has faced a more challenging schedule this season. Mike Gundy has been excellent since 2005 in August â October with a 71-23 record, but once November hits heâs just 22-20. The home team has also won the last 5 meetings.
The match up I really like in this spot is the fact that Kansas State should be able to run the ball. Oklahoma State is ranked 95th and have allowed opponents +30.5 yards per game over their season average offensively. Kansas State is ranked 28th in that regard holding opponents well under their season averages. Oklahoma State has been victim of QBâs picking up yards with their feet. Baylorâs Seth Russel had 65 yards on 10 carries, Iowa Stateâs Joel Lanning had 67 yards (highest total this year) and heâs not nearly the running QB Kansas Stateâs Jesse Ertz is and even Kansas Montell Cozart had 6 carries for 30 yards his highest all year. Thatâs a huge key, because Kansas State has put up points against bad defenses, and they average 5.82 ypc at home, 5.80 ypc in wins 3.04 in losses. Oklahoma State is allowing 5.16 ypc in conference play so I expect Kansas State to have success running the ball here and controlling the game.
Oklahoma State is very one dimensional, and they donât protect their QB ranked 86th overall in QB protection. In their road games this year they have allowed 11% sack percentage. Kansas State has had success getting to the QB at home and have been able to force turnovers. Kansas State has turned the ball over just 7 times this year. Oklahoma State when they are not more than +1 in TO margin are just 2-2 on the year.
